A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
